Government Technology

Swine Flu: Statistical Model Predicts Spread in U.S.



Alessandro Vespignani
Alessandro Vespignani

April 28, 2009 By

 

Photo: Alessandro Vespignani is an internationally recognized expert on the statistical analysis and computer modeling of epidemics. (Indiana University)

 

Two different swine influenza infection computer models from Indiana and Northwestern Universities, generated on April 27, both predict about 1,000 cases in the United States within three weeks.

However, as of 6 a.m., April 28, there had only been 40 cases of swine influenza (H1N1) reported in the U.S. according to the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

According to Indiana University Rudy Professor of Informatics Alessandro Vespignani, an internationally recognized expert on the statistical analysis and computer modeling of epidemics, the prediction of 1000 cases is actually pretty good news and it might not actually get that bad.

"This is a worst-case scenario, as we are always working in a worst-case scenario setting," Vespignani said in a press statement today. "What we are finding is that this is not a panic situation and that this thing is not ramping up in some crazy way. Right now we are confident that in the next few days things will be more optimistic."

His optimism is based largely upon the actions taken worldwide: the medical alert in Mexico, school closures in Texas, World Health Organization warnings, increased controls at international airports and the availability of an anti-viral drug for treatment.

However, Vespignani also pointed out that the next 72 hours would be critical. Even the computer model predictions could change as often as every 12 to 24 hours, depending upon what happens in the world.

 


| More

Comments

Add Your Comment

You are solely responsible for the content of your comments. We reserve the right to remove comments that are considered profane, vulgar, obscene, factually inaccurate, off-topic, or considered a personal attack.

In Our Library

White Papers | Exclusives Reports | Webinar Archives | Best Practices and Case Studies
Cybersecurity in an "All-IP World" Are You Prepared?
In a recent survey conducted by Public CIO, over 125 respondents shared how they protect their environments from cyber threats and the challenges they see in an all-IP world. Read how your cybersecurity strategies and attitudes compare with your peers.
Maintain Your IT Budget with Consistent Compliance Practices
Between the demands of meeting federal IT compliance mandates, increasing cybersecurity threats, and ever-shrinking budgets, it’s not uncommon for routine maintenance tasks to slip among state and local government IT departments. If it’s been months, or even only days, since you have maintained your systems, your agency may not be prepared for a compliance audit—and that could have severe financial consequences. Regardless of your mission, consistent systems keep your data secure, your age
Best Practice Guide for Cloud and As-A-Service Procurements
While technology service options for government continue to evolve, procurement processes and policies have remained firmly rooted in practices that are no longer effective. This guide, built upon the collaborative work of state and local government and industry executives, outlines and explains the changes needed for more flexible and agile procurement processes.
View All

Featured Papers